NFL Week 10 picks: Bills win thriller over Vikings, Raiders edge Jeff Saturday and Colts (2024)

Since we're holding a national election this week, I figured now would be a good time for me to vote on something, so I'm going to vote on the best team in the NFL, which isn't going to be easy because I have no idea who's good this year. Every team I thought was good is actually average. Every team I thought was bad is also average, and using that math, that means there are apparently 32 average teams in the NFL this year.

Actually, I take that back. By my count there's exactly one good team and that team is the Eagles, and now that I've said that, there's a 99% chance that they're going to lose to their next game. Will I actually pick them to lose? Let's get to the Week 10 picks and find out.

Actually, before we get to the Week 10 picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. Also, I'm in charge of the NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com and if you want me invading your inbox five days per week, then you should definitely sign up. If you want to subscribe, all youhave to do is click here and enter your email address. If you do that, it will instantly make us best friends and you don't even have to feel bad about it because I've already let all my current best friends know that they might be replaced this week.

Since I'm now running a newsletter, you might be thinking that I'm way too busy to also podcast, but nope. If there are two things I'm never too busy for, it's podcasting and feeding stray cats.

On the podcasting end, for the rest of the season, I'll be joining Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson three days per week (Monday, Tuesday and Friday) on the Pick Six Podcast, which is our daily NFL podcast here at CBSSports.com. Earlier this week, Brinson and I took decided to talk ourselves into a few best bets for Week 10 and you can hear what we had to say below.

Alright, let's get to the picks.

NFL Week 10 Picks

Seattle (6-3) vs. Tampa Bay (4-5) in Munich, Germany

9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)

I totally forgot there was a game in Germany this week, which means I totally forgot to send in a request to go. However, based on my last trip to Germany, that's probably for the best. My first and only visit to Munich involved a trip to the Hofbrauhaus and I can't tell you anything about what happened after that, because that's what the Hofbrauhaus does to you.

If you read that tweet and are now wondering if I broke the record, the answer is no. As a matter of fact, I think the opposite happened, which is where the Germans laugh at you because of how slowly you drink beer.

Although I didn't break any records, Tom Brady could break some this week. For one, he could become the first NFL quarterback ever to start and win a game in FOUR different countries. Brady has already won games in England, Mexico and the United States, and now, he'll be looking to knock Germany off his bucket list.

Brady might be struggling this year, but if anything can fix that, it's an international game. Not only is Brady undefeated when he plays outside of the country (3-0), but he's averaging 317.3 pass yards per game and 3.3 touchdown passes per game in those wins. Also, Brady is just 258 yards away from setting the NFL record for most passing yards outside the United States. Did I even know that was a record before 10 minutes ago? No, but I'm not surprised to hear that Brady's now breaking records that I didn't even know existed.

The problem for Brady is that he's going to have a tough time hitting any of those numbers against the Seahawks. The Buccaneers have struggled to move the ball this season, and now, they're going up against a Seahawks defense that has been one of the best in the NFL over the past four weeks. That doesn't seem like a good thing. I'm taking the Seahawks.

The pick: Seahawks 24-17 over Buccaneers

Fun fact: Even though the Seahawks are located in the Pacific Time Zone, their flight to Munich won't be much longer than Tampa Bay's. The Seahawks will be flying 5,283 miles from Seattle to Munich while the Buccaneers will be flying 4,996. That's a difference of just 287 miles.

Minnesota (7-1) at Buffalo (6-2)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

I have to say, whoever is in charge of flexing Sunday night games definitely fell asleep at the wheel this week. Sure, Chargers-49ers is a somewhat attractive game, but it's not this game. Vikings-Bills should have been flexed to Sunday night because this game has it all.

Do you like drama? The Vikings have mastered it this year. No team in the NFL is better at jumping out to an early lead, then losing that lead, only to regain the lead followed by them winning the game in the most dramatic way possible. The Vikings are currently on a six-game winning streak and that essentially describes every game during that streak.

Do you like revenge? Stefon Diggs is facing his former team for the first time since being traded from Minnesota to Buffalo. Diggs has turned into one of the NFL's top receivers while in Buffalo, but the Vikings don't really miss him because they found Justin Jefferson. Since the start of the 2020 season, Jefferson (3,883 yards) and Diggs (3,617) have the first and fourth-most receiving yards in the NFL.

Do you like heartbreak? If this game had been moved to Sunday night, the entire pregame could have been spent recounting all the heartbreak that both of these teams have suffered throughout their history. Sure, it probably would have taken a seven-hour pregame show to go through every postseason lowlight that both these teams have suffered through, but everyone loves trainwreck television so it would have been a ratings hit. Scott Norwood field goal in the Super Bowl? Gary Anderson in the 1998 NFC title game? The Music City Miracle? Brett Favre's ugly interception in the 2009 NFC title game? Show it all.

If you're wondering who I'm going to pick in this game, the answer is not Kirk Cousins.

Look, do I want to pick the shirtless guy who's wearing chains around his neck? Yes, I do. However, I can't pick the Vikings because whenever Cousins faces a good team, he tends to struggle. Cousins has never won a game with the Vikings where his team is an underdog of six points or more. Not only is he 0-6 in those situations, but he's 1-14 in his career.

Although the Vikings are 7-1, I haven't exactly been impressed with any of their wins. Their best win came over Miami, but that was a Dolphins team that was down to its third-string quarterback. Every other win has come against a team that currently has a losing record and in their only loss, they got de-pantsed by the Eagles 24-7.

If it turns out that Josh Allen is dealing with any sort of arm injury, then I might have to revisit this pick, but for now, I'm rolling with the Bills.

The pick: Bills 27-24 over Vikings

Jacksonville (3-6) at Kansas City (6-2)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Like most people, I flipped my clock back an hour over the weekend, which I'm only mentioning, because that's become my annual reminder that it's time to start picking the Chiefs to win in every game for the rest of the year. During the first two months of the season, picking the Chiefs to win is always a risk because they always suffer one or two inexplicable losses -- I mean, I still have no idea how they lost to the Colts in Week 3 -- but once the calendar hits November, they destroy everyone in their path.

In their past 10 November games, the Chiefs are 10-0 and the only thing more impressive than that is their record in December games. The Chiefs have won 14 straight December games and what I'm trying to say here is that from the time you turn your clock back an hour until New Year's Eve, you should never pick the Chiefs to lose.

I almost feel sorry for the Jaguars that the NFL is forcing them to play the Chiefs right now. Not only is this in November when the Chiefs never lose, but it's also in Kansas City where the temperature is supposed to be 40 degrees on Sunday. If you've ever put an indoor cat outside and looked at the panic in their face, that is the Jaguars whenever you put them in cold weather. Dating back to December 2017, the Jaguars are 0-20 in any game where the kickoff temperature is under 55 degrees. It has literally been five years since they won a game where it was under 55 degrees.

I thought about taking the Chiefs by three touchdowns here, but after a crazy win over the Titans in Week 9 and with a looming divisional showdown against the Chargers in Week 11, this feels like a trap game. The good news for the Chiefs is that the Jags aren't actually good at trapping anyone, so I think they'll keep this close, but they won't pull off the upset.

The pick: Chiefs 31-24 over Jaguars

Indianapolis (3-5-1) at Las Vegas (2-6)

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

If you haven't been following the Colts over the past few weeks, let me give you a quick rehash of how things have gone:

Oct. 24: Matt Ryan gets benched (for Sam Ehlinger)
Nov. 1: They fire their offensive coordinator (Marcus Brady)
Nov. 6: They have their lowest offensive output since 1997 in a loss to the Patriots (121 yards).
Nov. 7: They fire Frank Reich and promote a guy to interim coach who has zero NFL coaching experience (Jeff Saturday).

I would say that it's been a circus, but that would be an insult to circuses.

What this means is that the Raiders will be going into their most winnable game of the season: They get to face a team that's starting its backup quarterback with no offensive coordinator and an interim coach who will have been on the job for six days when this game kicks off.

I'm not going to say that Josh McDaniels should be fired if the Raiders lose, but if he gets out-coached by a former offensive lineman who was coaching high school football last week, that might be a sign that it's time to move on from him. To be fair, Saturday wasn't just coaching high school football, he did also accidentally scout the Raiders at some point last week and it looks like he had the same takeaway as the rest of us.

The fact that Frank Reich got fired just before facing Josh McDaniels almost seems ironic because Reich wouldn't even have had the Colts job if not for McDaniels. The Raiders coach originally accepted Indy's coaching job back in 2018, but the night before his introductory press conference, he got cold feet and decided that he'd rather stay in New England.

After getting spurned by McDaniels, the Colts turned to Reich, who was clearly Option B. The moral of the story here is also an important lesson to be learned in life: Things never work out with Option B.

This feels like a game that McDaniels absolutely can't afford to lose and fortunately for him, I don't think his team is going to lose.

The pick: Raiders 19-16 over Colts

Dallas (6-2) at Green Bay (3-6)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

If there's any game on the Cowboys' schedule that Mike McCarthy has had circled on his calendar all year, it's definitely this one. And if he doesn't own a calendar, I'm guessing he went out and bought one the night the NFL schedule was released just so he could circle this game.

Four years ago, the Packers fired McCarthy because the offense had gotten stale, there was no creativity and Aaron Rodgers seemed to loathe him, which I think means the Packers have officially come full circle because that's where they seem to be right now. Rodgers seems frustrated with the offense, he has no one to throw the ball to and he doesn't seem to be on the same page as Matt LaFleur.

The Packers offense has looked broken for practically the entire season, and now, it has to face a Cowboys team that has given up the third-fewest points in the NFL this year. The Packers can't score and they're playing a defense that doesn't give up points and although I'm bad at math, even I can tell this likely isn't going to end well for Green Bay.

It feels like the Packers' only hope at winning this game is to run the ball. The Cowboys are giving up 135.1 rushing yards per game, which makes them one of just nine teams surrendering more than 130 per game. If I'm Matt LaFleur, I go up to Aaron Rodgers this week and tell him that we're going to run the ball 57 times against the Cowboys and not throw it once. If that happened, I'm guessing Rodgers would laugh at him. Speaking of laughter, I feel like Mike McCarthy is going to get the last laugh on Green Bay here.

The pick: Cowboys 24-16 over Packers

NFL Week 10 picks: All the rest

Falcons 31-23 over Panthers
Bears 30-20 over Lions
Broncos 20-17 over Titans
Dolphins 34-27 over Browns
Giants 23-17 over Texans
Steelers 19-16 over Saints
Rams 27-20 over Cardinals
49ers 30-23 over Chargers
Eagles 23-16 over Commanders

BYES: Bengals, Ravens, Jets, Patriots

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Chargers would win a crazy game over the Falcons and guess what happened? The Chargers won a crazy game over the Falcons. Now, did I know there was going to be a totally bonkers play in the final minute that that clearly involved both teams trying to blow the game? Of course, I did. If you've watched any Chargers football over the past 20 years, then you know that they're one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to inexplicably losing games. Fortunately for the Chargers, the Falcons are actually better at inexplicably losing games.

If you somehow missed the end of Sunday's game, here's what happened: Austin Ekeler fumbled with under a minute left and the Falcons recovered it only to fumble away the fumble recovery.

That play is basically the Falcons' entire existence in a nutshell.

Worst pick: If there's one rule that you should always follow when picking NFL games, it's that you should never pick Andy Dalton to win in prime time. I don't care what the situation is, don't do it. For the second time in three weeks, I ignored that rule and for the second time in three weeks, that decision totally backfired in my face, which wasn't surprising at all, because just look how bad he's been in prime time throughout his career.

Picking Andy Dalton to win in prime time is like picking a dog to win a cutest hamster contest. It makes no sense and you should never do it. To keep myself from picking him in prime time ever again, I will get his prime-time record tattooed on my back if I ever pick his team to win a prime-time game ever again when he's starting.

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, here's a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year.

Teams I'm 7-1 picking this year (Straight up):Vikings, Rams.
Longest winning streak: Vikings (Six straight games picked correctly)

Teams I've been the worst at picking this year (Straight up):Jets (3-6), Browns (3-5), Raiders (3-5).
Longest losing streak: Saints (Three straight games picked incorrectly)

Every other team is somewhere in the middle.

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 9:9-4
SU overall:82-53-1

Against the spread in Week 9:4-7-2
ATS overall:63-67-6

You can find John Breechon FacebookorTwitter andif he's not doing one of those things, he's probably looking at tattoos since there's a 40% chance won't be able to stop picking Andy Dalton to win in primetime.