Bleacher Report's Expert Week 10 NFL Picks (2024)

Over the last two weeks, Bleacher Report's NFL experts have dished out the goods, going 21-9 against the spread and 23-7 straight up with their consensus picks. If you want to stuff your pockets with a little more green, check in now while our crew rides a hot streak into Week 10.

B/R's NFL expert panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford have no room for complacency, and they had to dig deep in the data to pick another tough slate of games. Out of 14 contests, nine have point spreads of four points or less.

This week, our panel picked four underdogs (three of them at home) ATS and took two to win outright. Yet several matchups came down to a four-three split, which may be an indicator of a chaotic week of outcomes.

Take a look at our NFL expert standings through Week 9 with last week's records in parentheses. We have a hit rate of 53.6 percent ATS and 62.5 percent SU on consensus picks.

ATS Standings

1. Gagnon: 76-58-2 (10-4)

2. Davenport: 74-60-2 (7-7)

3. Moton: 72-62-2 (9-5)

4. Hanford 71-63-2 (8-6)

5. Knox: 67-67-2 (8-6)

6. O'Donnell: 64-70-2 (9-5)

7. Sobleski: 63-71-1 (4-10)

Consensus picks: 73-61-2 (10-4)

SU Standings

1. Moton: 92-44 (12-2)

2. Hanford 90-46 (10-4)

3. Davenport: 84-52 (10-4)

T-4. Gagnon: 83-53 (10-4)

T-4. Knox: 83-53 (9-5)

6. O'Donnell: 81-55 (9-5)

7. Sobleski: 78-58 (5-9)

Consensus picks: 85-51 (10-4)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Nov. 8, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by TeamRankings.

In a battle between teams near the bottom of the NFC standings, the Chicago Bears probably won't have quarterback Justin Fields back on the field against the Carolina Panthers Thursday night. He's doubtful to play with a dislocated right thumb, which means undrafted rookie signal-caller Tyson Bagent will likely get his fourth consecutive start.

After the Bears released their final Week 10 injury report on Wednesday, Moton confidently picked the Panthers to cover and win outright.

"With the return of running back Khalil Herbert, the Bears should be able to run the ball effectively with their three-man backfield against the Panthers' 28th-ranked run defense," Moton said. "Carolina has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (14) entering Week 10."

"However, Herbert, D'Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson won't be able to offset the Bears' potential issues in the passing game with Bagent under center. The rookie signal-caller has thrown for three touchdowns and six interceptions in four games (three starts). While Bagent has completed 67.3 percent of his pass attempts, he'll make one too many mistakes with turnovers to give Carolina the edge in this matchup.

"Bears wideout DJ Moore will score a touchdown against his former team, but Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young steals the show with a solid performance in a win."

Predictions

Davenport: Panthers

Gagnon: Bears

Hanford: Bears

Knox: Bears

Moton: Panthers

O'Donnell: Bears

Sobleski: Bears

ATS Consensus: Bears -3.5

SU Consensus: Bears

Score Prediction: Bears 24, Panthers 20

The Indianapolis Colts have averaged 28 points per game since dynamic rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson went down with a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5. They've also maintained a physical offensive identity with Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss in the backfield, rushing for at least 164 yards in two of their last three outings.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are averaging the second-fewest points per game (15.0) of any team, and they've scored more than 20 only once in nine games. With lead wide receiver Kendrick Bourne out for the year with a torn ACL, the Patriots' offensive struggles could follow them to Germany in an early Sunday game.

Although the Colts have turned the ball over 10 times in the past four games, we expect to see Indianapolis give New England a strong dose of the run game to win outright and cover. Sobleski doesn't think the Patriots have the offensive firepower to exploit the Colts' weakness in the secondary.

"This pick comes down to one matchup: Can the league's worst wide receiver corps take advantage of the league's worst group of cornerbacks? The New England Patriots rank in the bottom five leaguewide in passing plays of 20 or more yards. They struggle to create chunk plays of any kind.

"The Colts' defense can cover up its deficiencies by sitting back in zone coverage and allowing Mac Jones to operate, assuming he'll either be forced into a mistake or doesn't have the skill-position talent around him for the offense to consistently move the ball.

"The Colts hold an advantage because they have the luxury of just handing the ball to Taylor and Moss.

Predictions

Davenport: Colts

Gagnon: Patriots

Hanford: Patriots

Knox: Colts

Moton: Colts

O'Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Colts

ATS Consensus: Colts -1.5

SU Consensus: Colts

Score Prediction: Colts 23, Patriots 20

The Baltimore Ravens look like the hottest team in football right now. They've outscored their last four opponents 130-49, which includes 38-6 and 37-3 blowout wins over the playoff-caliber Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks, respectively.

Nonetheless, bettors should be mindful of the familiarity between division opponents, especially with both clubs in an early postseason race.

The Browns have yet to cover the spread as an away team (0-2-1) this season, but quarterback Deshaun Watson returned from a shoulder injury last week. He seems capable of playing through and managing any discomfort in his throwing arm.

We picked the Ravens to win outright, but the Browns will at least make it competitive as they try to avoid losing the season series to Baltimore.

Sobleski went in the other direction ATS, citing a concern about the Browns' run defense in a matchup with quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' run game.

"Taking last week's game out of the equation, because the Arizona Cardinals chose to debut a fifth-round rookie quarterback against Myles Garrett and Co., the previous trend for Cleveland's defense hadn't been positive," Sobleski wrote. "The Colts and Seahawks racked up an impressive 282 rushing yards at 4.9 yards per carry against the Browns.

"If the league's No. 1 overall defense has one specific weakness, it can be overaggressive and tends to overrun plays, thus not always maintaining good run fits. Even taking Arizona's awful effort into account, the Browns' run D falls outside the top five leaguewide.

"As usual, the Ravens sit atop the NFL in rushing yardage with their powerful, downhill style and an uber-athletic quarterback. Another explosive element can be now thrown into the mix with the emergence of rookie tailback Keaton Mitchell."

Predictions

Davenport: Ravens

Gagnon: Browns

Hanford: Ravens

Knox: Browns

Moton: Browns

O'Donnell: Browns

Sobleski: Ravens

ATS Consensus: Browns +6

SU Consensus: Ravens

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Browns 21

The Jacksonville Jaguars went into their Week 9 bye on a five-game winning streak, while the San Francisco 49ers needed their off week to regroup after three consecutive losses.

Two days after the 49ers lost 31-17 to the Cincinnati Bengals, they acquired edge-rusher Chase Young from the Washington Commanders. He'll line up opposite 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa to form a fierce pass-rushing duo capable of wrecking any game. San Francisco may also get a boost from wideout Deebo Samuel, who's on track to return from a shoulder injury.

Most of us expect 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy to shake off a string of underwhelming performances and San Francisco's defense to do enough with the addition of Young to win the game, though we gave the consensus ATS nod to the Jaguars.

Davenport believes Jacksonville will make a statement against a Super Bowl contender at home.

"Some analysts might point out that these are two very evenly matched teams who were barreling in opposite directions before Week 9 byes. Others might even postulate that the assumption San Francisco will win is born more of who the 49ers and Jaguars are perceived to be than who they actually are—one the perennial contender; the other, not so much.

"This analyst? All about quarterback hair—Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence has a majestic and regal mane, while San Francisco's Brock Purdy looks like he gets his hair done at Men's Clips (they do have hot towels).

"Funny ha-ha aside, the Jaguars are legit. Arguably better than San Francisco in a vacuum. This is their chance to show they belong in the Super Bowl conversation in the AFC. With a week to get ready and getting a field goal at home? Yes please—because the Jags will win outright."

Predictions

Davenport: Jaguars

Gagnon: 49ers

Hanford: 49ers

Knox: Jaguars

Moton: 49ers

O'Donnell: Jaguars

Sobleski: Jaguars

ATS Consensus: Jaguars +3

SU Consensus: 49ers

Score Prediction: 49ers 28, Jaguars 26

The Minnesota Vikings may have found the right quarterback to fill in for Kirk Cousins, who tore his Achilles two weeks ago.

Last week, after rookie fifth-round quarterback Jaren Hall suffered a concussion early in the first quarter, Joshua Dobbs took over and led the team to a 31-28 victory over the Atlanta Falcons with highlight plays as a passer and ball-carrier late in the contest.

While Dobbs looked impressive under short notice, he'll now go up against the New Orleans Saints, who have all week to prepare for him.

Bettors who sided with the Vikings should temper their expectations for Dobbs, but Knox thinks the journeyman signal-caller will do enough with his legs to help Minnesota outscore New Orleans.

"Will we see Joshua Dobbs magic for the second week in a row? I wouldn't count on it. I also wouldn't count on New Orleans' recent offensive hot streak continuing against a Minnesota defense showing growth under Brian Flores.

"The loss of running back Cam Akers is a blow for Minnesota because the Saints have been much more consistent defending the pass than the run. However, I see Dobbs doing enough with his legs to give the Saints problems, just as Trevor Lawrence did in Week 7.

"I don't know if either of these teams are serious playoff contenders. I'll take the one playing at home."

Predictions

Davenport: Saints

Gagnon: Vikings

Hanford: Vikings

Knox: Vikings

Moton: Saints

O'Donnell: Vikings

Sobleski: Saints

ATS Consensus: Vikings +2.5

SU Consensus: Vikings

Score Prediction: Vikings 26, Saints 23

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is now the clear front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year after his strong Week 9 performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He threw for 470 yards—a single-game rookie record—and five touchdowns.

At 4-4, the Texans have exceeded early expectations, and they're 4-1 as underdogs ATS. Houston may be on the rise with a marquee quarterback, but we sided with the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals for our consensus pick.

Gagnon believes the Texans will have a letdown following their thrilling win over the Buccaneers.

"What we saw from the Texans last week was awesome, but a road game with the streaking Bengals is a lot different from a home matchup with the mediocre Buccaneers. Young teams like Houston are often roller-coasters, and I get the feeling the Texans will have trouble maintaining that emotional momentum from Week 9 in a very different and more challenging environment.

"The Texans are due for a dud that matches their lack of depth and experience. Cincinnati rolls to extend its winning streak to five games."

Predictions

Davenport: Bengals

Gagnon: Bengals

Hanford: Bengals

Knox: Texans

Moton: Bengals

O'Donnell: Texans

Sobleski: Texans

ATS Consensus: Bengals -6.5

SU Consensus: Bengals

Score Prediction: Bengals 31, Texans 24

After a 3-1 start, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost four consecutive contests on the other side of their Week 5 bye. In that stretch of losses, they scored an average of 18.5 points while giving up an average of 24.8 points.

Outscored by about a touchdown on average over the past month, the Buccaneers made a few of our experts nervous about their chance to snap a four-game skid in a matchup with the Tennessee Titans, who may have their quarterback for the foreseeable future in Will Levis.

Most of our panel believes Tampa Bay is due for a win in a close game with the Titans, who are 1-3 ATS in away games. However, Hanford expects Levis and running back Derrick Henry to lead Tennessee to victory.

"The Buccaneers defense is already having nightmares about one rookie quarterback after C.J. Stroud decimated them to the tune of 470 yards and five touchdowns in Week 9. I don't think Levis will perform to that level on Sunday, but I do like him to lead what should be a rested Titans team to win what is essentially a pick'em game.

"Tennessee has struggled in pass protection this year, but Levis will make a few key throws, Henry will wear down the Bucs' front and the Titans squeak out a road win."

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Gagnon: Buccaneers

Hanford: Titans

Knox: Buccaneers

Moton: Titans

O'Donnell: Buccaneers

Sobleski: Buccaneers

ATS Consensus: Buccaneers -1

SU Consensus: Buccaneers

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 21, Titans 17

Don't expect offensive fireworks in a game between teams that rank 20th or worse in scoring. Based on that alone, you can see why oddsmakers gave the home team the customary three-point spread.

Coming off a Thursday night win over the Tennessee Titans, the Pittsburgh Steelers had a few extra days to prepare for a struggling Green Bay Packers squad that beat the Brett Rypien-led Los Angeles Rams to snap a four-game losing streak in Week 9.

Though Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett hasn't shown signs of a strong second-year leap, he's made some fourth-quarter magic over the past month. Hanford expects Pittsburgh to pull away from Green Bay late in this contest.

"I expect this game to follow the formula that every Steelers game has followed so far this season. Both teams will struggle to score, and fans watching will be shielding their eyes to avoid having to watch these two less-than-average offenses attempt to string plays together for three quarters.

"Then we'll get to the fourth quarter and Pittsburgh will somehow be in the game for no discernible reason. I'll take Pickett's ability to come alive in the fourth quarter, and the Steelers defense to best Jordan Love in that scenario. Steelers cover in a win."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Gagnon: Steelers

Hanford: Steelers

Knox: Steelers

Moton: Steelers

O'Donnell: Steelers

Sobleski: Steelers

ATS Consensus: Steelers -3

SU Consensus: Steelers

Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Packers 16

The Los Angeles Chargers will look to extend their winning streak to three games following a 27-6 blowout win over the New York Jets Monday night, and they'll face a well-rested Detroit Lions squad that notched their sixth win of the season two weeks ago on Monday Night Football.

Our experts expect to see these high-scoring teams trade touchdown drives at some point in this game, and they leaned toward the Lions to get the final say in a back-and-forth offensive matchup.

O'Donnell raises a viable point with Detroit coming off a bye week, though. He sided with the Chargers' momentum going into a crucial home game.

"I thoroughly understand everyone else's choice to back the road favorites in this one. The Chargers are returning home on a short week, and Justin Herbert is battling with an injured finger. But the last time I went against the Lions (Week 7 at Baltimore), we saw what can happen when a game gets away from them. Did they learn from that? And does that bye week sink into their gameplay?

"In Dan Campbell's short tenure as Lions head coach, they've yet to win a post-bye week game (one loss and one tie). It's not always easy to come out of a bye firing on all cylinders.

"Other than the Chiefs game, which had a late K.C. touchdown to boost the lead, the Chargers' other three losses were by three points or fewer. I'll take these points and cross my fingers for a shootout where the home team has the ball last."

Predictions

Davenport: Lions

Gagnon: Lions

Hanford: Lions

Knox: Lions

Moton: Lions

O'Donnell: Chargers

Sobleski: Lions

ATS Consensus: Lions -2.5

SU Consensus: Lions

Score Prediction: Lions 34, Chargers 28

This matchup will generate buzz as Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray prepares for his season debut.

For the first eight weeks of the season, the Cardinals started backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs, whom they sent to the Minnesota Vikings before the trade deadline. They trotted out rookie fifth-rounder Clayton Tune last week against the Cleveland Browns, to predictably disastrous results.

Murray figures to elevate Arizona's offense, but he's coming back from ACL surgery. He might not look like the Pro Bowl quarterback we saw between 2020 and 2021 in a matchup with a top-10 pass defense in total yards, which is why we took the Atlanta Falcons to win this pick'em game.

Davenport went against the consensus because he's clearly fed up with Falcons head coach Arthur Smith's weekly attempts to outsmart the room.

"My pick here isn't based solely on Murray returning to the field a conquering hero like Napoleon (coming to theaters soon, because who doesn't want to munch popcorn while watching a histoflick about a 200-year-old psychopath?). Although if Murray doesn't play the consensus is gonna get 'Tune'd up in the grisliest way imaginable.

"It's because I'm done with Arthur Smith's 'I'm smarter than everyone' offense that runs jet sweeps with backup tight ends by the goal line instead of handing the ball to the running back whom they drafted inside the top 10 this year or throwing to the tight end whom they drafted in the top five in 2021. I mean, why would anyone do that?

"The Cardinals could also have James Conner back for this game, and if it's 1st-and-goal at the 3-yard-line, Jonathan Gannon has the sense to give him the ball instead of running a Statue of Liberty play with Ricky the Nacho Vendor and Mike the Parking Lot Attendant."

Predictions

Davenport: Cardinals

Gagnon: Cardinals

Hanford: Cardinals

Knox: Falcons

Moton: Falcons

O'Donnell: Falcons

Sobleski: Falcons

ATS Consensus: Falcons -1

SU Consensus: Falcons

Score Prediction: Falcons 27, Cardinals 24

These NFC East rivals squared off in Week 1, and the Dallas Cowboys mauled the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium from beginning to end in a 40-0 shutout.

Nearly two months later, the Giants will start undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito as Daniel Jones starts his recovery from a torn ACL. Big Blue also won't have its lead pass-catcher, tight end Darren Waller, who's on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.

We can't find a soul who would pick the Giants to win this game in Dallas. O'Donnell is comfortable laying an additional touchdown in spread points with the Cowboys.

"One could argue that a Giants team averaging 11.2 points per game, about five points less than the second-worst team in the league, warrants a spot of more than two touchdowns and two two-point conversions. They've scored 16 or fewer points in all but one game this year.

"I'm not going to waste any more words on the Giants and their 10 total touchdowns in nine games this season. The Cowboys lost to Philly last week in a game they should feel they should've won, and they'll take out that frustration by embarrassing their division rivals, who they've beaten 12 times in the last 13 meetings by an average of nearly 15 points.

"The Giants aren't average; they're brutal. I'll buy Dallas up to -22.5, maybe more."

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Gagnon: Cowboys

Hanford: Cowboys

Knox: Cowboys

Moton: Cowboys

O'Donnell: Cowboys

Sobleski: Giants

ATS Consensus: Cowboys -16

SU Consensus: Cowboys

Score Prediction: Cowboys 42, Giants 10

At the beginning of the season, it seemed as though 2022 Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith would continue to play at a high level and lead the Seattle Seahawks to high-scoring victories. In Week 2, he threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns in a 37-31 overtime win over the Detroit Lions.

However, over the last three weeks, Smith has thrown for four touchdowns and four interceptions. On top of that, he's coming off his worst outing of the season, throwing for 157 yards and an interception with a 46.4 percent completion rate against the Baltimore Ravens.

Fortunately for Smith, he's isn't going on the road to play the Ravens' second-ranked pass defense again. This week, the Seahawks get the much weaker Washington Commanders, who are tied for second in passing touchdowns allowed (19).

Knox thinks Smith will rebound from his forgettable Week 9 outing to carve up a defense with a depleted pass rush and sides with the Seahawks.

"I'm a little uncomfortable with this line, given the version of Seattle we saw in Week 9. However, this should be a bounce-back game for the Seahawks, who have been solid offensively for most of the season and desperately need to reestablish themselves. Washington's secondary has struggled all year, and the departure of Montez Sweat and Chase Young doesn't help the situation.

"The Commanders did enough against Mac Jones and the Patriots to win, but the Seahawks are a much bigger challenge. I expect Smith to play one of his best statistical games of the season, and Seattle is a tough road trip for East Coast teams."

Predictions

Davenport: Seahawks

Gagnon: Seahawks

Hanford: Seahawks

Knox: Seahawks

Moton: Seahawks

O'Donnell: Seahawks

Sobleski: Commanders

ATS Consensus: Seahawks -6

SU Consensus: Seahawks

Score Prediction: Seahawks 28, Commanders 20

The New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders likely have locker rooms on opposite sides of the mood spectrum.

Last week, the Raiders fired Josh McDaniels and promoted Antonio Pierce to interim head coach and then beat the Giants 30-6 at home. They smoked victory cigars after the game. Meanwhile, following the Jets' 27-6 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, ESPN's Rich Cimini highlighted player frustrations in the locker room.

The Raiders will go into this game with new energy and a ton of confidence, while Jets players may be running out of patience with their inept offense.

If you believe in competitive momentum, the Raiders are the clear choice. Moton gives the Silver and Black the upper hand in a potential battle between ground attacks.

"We may see more defensive and special teams touchdowns than offensive scores in this game," Moton said. "The Jets rank eighth and ninth in points and yards allowed, respectively, but they've scored just eight offensive touchdowns in eight contests.

"Gang Green's struggles to reach paydirt coupled with its recent turnover issues (five giveaways over the last two weeks) could allow the Raiders opportunities to score on short distances to goal.

"The team that has more success on the ground will win this tight matchup. The Jets give up the third-most rushing yards per game, and the Raiders are slightly worse, allowing the second-most yards on the ground per contest. With that said, Las Vegas has a more proven ball-carrier in 2022 rushing champion Josh Jacobs, who's coming off his best game of the season.

"Jets running back Breece Hall scores once, but Jacobs scores twice to propel the Raiders to victory in a physical, low-scoring battle."

Predictions

Davenport: Raiders

Gagnon: Jets

Hanford: Raiders

Knox: Raiders

Moton: Raiders

O'Donnell: Jets

Sobleski: Raiders

ATS Consensus: Raiders +1.5

SU Consensus: Raiders

Score Prediction: Raiders 17, Jets 13

The Buffalo Bills haven't put together a strong offensive performance in over a month. Since Week 4, they've scored an average of 20.2 points per game. Typically, teams with that scoring rate aren't favored by more than a touchdown and an extra point.

Consequently, a few of our experts confidently went against the consensus to pick the Denver Broncos for a cover ATS.

Gagnon acknowledged that Buffalo's offense can explode in any given week, but he also pointed out that the Bills have burned bettors for the past five weeks.

"Ever since hammering the Dolphins back on October 1, the Bills have gone 0-5 against the spread. Now they're giving up more than a field goal against a desperate, well-rested and still talented Broncos team that is operating on two weeks' rest and hasn't lost since Week 6? It's silliness, plain and simple.

"This could be a blowout, because that's always a possibility with the Bills. But there's a much better chance that it goes down to the wire."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Broncos

Hanford: Broncos

Knox: Bills

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Broncos

ATS Consensus: Bills -7.5

SU Consensus: Bills

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Broncos 21

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