Merry Christmas, friends. We had another one of those weeks where we had a winning record, but the top five fell short. The Cincinnati Bengals pushed as three-point favorites, the Los Angeles Rams came through, but I was just flat-out wrong about the Tennessee Titans, Green Bay Packers and DALLAS COWBOYS. Sorry, I didn't know James Cook was Christian McCaffrey. My bad.
All that said, I'll brag about taking the Carolina Panthers +3 and Seattle Seahawks +4. An 8-6-2 ATS week overall. Here's a look at what I'm thinking in Week 16. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Top five picks ATS record: 33-38-4
Overall ATS record: 99-114-11
Straight up record: 133-91
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-4)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
I really like the Rams. I backed them last week and I'll do it again here. Skipping over that Washington Commanders matchup in which they covered, did you watch Matthew Stafford against the Baltimore Ravensthe week prior? The vet showed up on the road and threw three touchdowns while Kyren Williams rushed for 114 yards. The Rams lost in overtime, but it was because their special teams gave up a punt return touchdown.
Stafford has thrown 12 touchdowns over the past four contests, which ranks most in the NFL, while the Saints have lost four straight games on Thursday. L.A. is super dangerous when healthy. The Rams average 6.7 yards per play when Stafford, Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are all on the field this season. I'll give you that the -4 number is meh, but the Saints are 4-9-1 ATS while the Rams have covered in four straight games -- the longest active streak in the league.
The pick:Rams -4
Projected score:Rams 27-21
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS,Paramount+)
C.J. Stroud is reportedly expected to miss another game due to his concussion, and while Case Keenum scored an overtime win over the Titans in their Oilers uniforms on Sunday, this Browns squad is a different team. The Titans' defense isn't elite, while the Browns allow an average of 261.1 yards per game, which are the fewest since the 2009 New York Jets.
So, advantage Browns defense. What about the offense? I'm taking Joe Flacco over Keenum. Can he turn the ball over? Sure. But he was called upon to save the Browns season, not play it safe. He has the fifth-most passing yards (939) in a quarterback's first three games with a team since 1970! I'm not going to pretend like the Browns are dominating opponents, but they are 5-0 in games decided by 3 or fewer points this season. If we are power-ranking NFL teams, the Browns are probably above the Texans on every list. Why not take them with the number under a field goal?
The pick:Browns -2.5
Projected score:Browns 23-17
Washington Commanders at New York Jets (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS,Paramount+)
My dad's birthday is this week. He's a longtime suffering Washington fan, which has likely taken years off his life. It's the sacrifice we make as sports fans. Why do we do it? I'm not really sure.
In 2008, he took me to Canton to watch Darrell Green and Art Monk be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I'll never forget having to stand for FOUR MINUTES as we applauded Monk. Have you ever stood for four minutes and clapped? It was insane. It was the longest standing ovation in Pro Football Hall of Fame history.
Thanks, dad. Happy birthday.
The pick:Commanders +3
Projected score:Commanders 14-13
Detroit Lions (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox,fubo)
My column has basically been me picking the Lions to cover, and then they let me down. I wanted to swear off them for good, but I picked them to cover vs. the Denver Broncos last week, so I'm hoping for a Christmas miracle by bumping them up to the top five again.
The Lions SHOULD be three points better than Nick Mullens and Co. It just really depends on if this team "shows up." What do I mean by that? Well, Detroit could have one of the best offenses in the league with Jared Goff, David Montgomery, JahmyrGibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta etc. If they take care of the ball, Detroit wins this game. I'm not high on the Lions defense, but can the Vikings really outscore an offense that's top five in scoring?
The pick:Lions -3
Projected score:Lions 27-20
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-12)
Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox,fubo)
I don't care if Jalen Hurts needs a dictionary for the word "commitment," this is a bounce-back spot for the Eagles. Life has been hard the past three weeks for Philadelphia, no doubt about it. But the Eagles are so much better than this Giants team.
New York is 2-6 ATS on the road this season, and just 1-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs. The Eagles have been put on notice, and have a very winnable schedule down the stretch to secure the NFC East. At home, give me Philly to finally get right.
The pick:Eagles -12
Projected score:Eagles 27-14
If you want a more analytical approach to yourNFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out theSportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 16.
Other Week 16 picks
Steelers (+2) 14-13 over Bengals
Bills (-12) 28-13 over Chargers
Colts (+1) 24-21 over Falcons
Packers 23-20 over Panthers (+5)
Seahawks (-2.5) 24-20 over Titans
Buccaneers (PICK) 26-23 over Jaguars
Bears 24-22 over Cardinals (+4)
Cowboys (+1.5) 29-26 over Dolphins
Broncos 17-16 over Patriots (+6.5)
Chiefs (-10) 27-16 over Raiders
49ers (-5.5) 28-21 over Ravens
